Hey Reader, Just landed back in LA today, so the letters are back on their normal schedule after a month of travel throwing me off. Good to be home. We've got a few big things to cover this week. Warsh ran his first Fed meeting and flipped the whole script, the cut is dead and a hike is now on the table. The Iran peace deal got signed Tuesday, almost blew up in Switzerland today, then got pulled back together by tonight. And the most expensive market in a hundred years keeps leaning on a...
4 days ago • 14 min read
Hello Reader, What a day. This morning Israel bombed Beirut and the Iran deal looked dead. Hours later Trump called the whole thing done, opened the Strait of Hormuz, and pulled the US naval blockade. The war's over, at least on paper, and futures gapped up over 2% the moment they opened. On Thursday Trump called off his strikes and said a deal was basically there. Then early Sunday June 14 Israel hit Hezbollah targets in Beirut, and for a few hours it looked like the whole thing might fall...
11 days ago • 16 min read
Hello Reader, Last week I called Friday's jobs report the real test. The market flunked it. For nine straight weeks the only direction was up. Records on the S&P, records on the Nasdaq, retail all-in on the AI trade. Then the May jobs report dropped Friday morning and the whole thing fell apart in a few hours. The S&P lost 2.64%, the Nasdaq dropped 4.18%, and about $2 trillion in market cap just vanished. The chip index had its worst day since the 2020 crash and torched over $1 trillion by...
18 days ago • 10 min read
Ciao Reader, First off, thank you. The response to last week's letter was unreal. This community is what makes doing this worth it. And I'll let you in on something - I'm writing this one from Lake Como, Italy (more pics below). The market doesn't care that I'm staring at the Alps off the water, but I'm not complaining. Keeping this one short: the key stuff from last week, a few new names I'm watching, and an update on my trades, which have been absolutely killing it. Macro: Stagflation Is...
26 days ago • 7 min read
Hello Reader, Happy Memorial Day. US markets are closed today, so enjoy the day off. I am writing this one from abroad as I will be out of the country for over a month, but the newsletters will keep coming on schedule. You might also see some travel pics show up in future letters. Big plot twist over the weekend that I want to walk you through before Tuesday's open. Macro Trump Wants the Arab World to Join the Abraham Accords Sunday afternoon Trump posted a long letter on TRUTH Social calling...
about 1 month ago • 14 min read
Howdy Reader, Last week was stacked. New Fed Chair confirmed and sworn in. CPI ripped to a 3-year high. PPI was even worse. Trump flew to Beijing and met Xi. And the bond market finally broke. The U.S. 30-year hit a high of 5.160% on Friday, the highest level since the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis. Let me walk you through it. Macro Warsh Confirmed. Bonds Broke. Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the next Federal Reserve Chair on Tuesday, May 13, in a 54-45 Senate vote. He officially took...
about 1 month ago • 15 min read
Hello Reader, Trump's been playing yo-yo with Iran. Back and forth, on again, off again. Sunday he rejected Iran's latest response and crude oil ripped over 5% on Sunday futures open. I think most of this stays contained, but there is real risk if peace talks completely fall apart. More on that below. Let's get into it. Macro Iran Deal Fell Apart Sunday Iran sent over a 10-point response to the U.S. peace proposal. The main asks were U.S. military out of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz...
about 2 months ago • 11 min read
Hello Reader, Spirit Airlines shut down Saturday after 33 years in business, and the market barely flinched. The rescue talks stalled out and the bondholders walked. By Saturday they were grounding the fleet and 17,000 people were out of work. Their restructuring math was built around fuel prices that don't exist anymore, and there was no path to a working exit from the moment the war started. The rest of the week was loaded too. The Fed split sharply at the FOMC meeting, Powell hands off the...
about 2 months ago • 14 min read
Hello Reader, Saturday night, shots were fired near Trump at the White House Correspondents' Dinner. By Sunday evening, markets opened like nothing really happened. People are getting numb to chaos. Political violence, geopolitical risk, inflation, weak consumer data, labor market cracks, it all hits the tape, gets talked about for a few hours, then everyone goes right back to the charts. That's the setup this week. The macro backdrop is still messy, but markets mostly don't care yet. I'm...
2 months ago • 14 min read
Hello Reader, New all-time highs Friday. Hormuz closed again Sunday. The Iran trade is not over. Last week I called that if /ES held the 100-day and went sideways-to-slightly-higher, we had a bull flag pointing higher. That is exactly what happened. S&P closed the week at 7,126 (+4.5%). Nasdaq +6.8%. Dow +3.2%. Record closes across the board. Then today Trump ordered the Navy to board an Iranian cargo ship, Iran killed the talks, and futures opened red. The Bull Flag Played Out. Now What? The...
2 months ago • 13 min read
