Hello Reader, Saturday night, shots were fired near Trump at the White House Correspondents' Dinner. By Sunday evening, markets opened like nothing really happened. People are getting numb to chaos. Political violence, geopolitical risk, inflation, weak consumer data, labor market cracks, it all hits the tape, gets talked about for a few hours, then everyone goes right back to the charts. That's the setup this week. The macro backdrop is still messy, but markets mostly don't care yet. I'm...
about 7 hours ago • 14 min read
Hello Reader, New all-time highs Friday. Hormuz closed again Sunday. The Iran trade is not over. Last week I called that if /ES held the 100-day and went sideways-to-slightly-higher, we had a bull flag pointing higher. That is exactly what happened. S&P closed the week at 7,126 (+4.5%). Nasdaq +6.8%. Dow +3.2%. Record closes across the board. Then today Trump ordered the Navy to board an Iranian cargo ship, Iran killed the talks, and futures opened red. The Bull Flag Played Out. Now What? The...
7 days ago • 13 min read
Hello Reader, If you weren't hedged last week, you probably got chopped up pretty bad. And this week is shaping up to be even uglier. Quick recap of what happened. Tuesday we got the ceasefire announcement, oil dumped, stocks ripped, and every bear got smoked. Friday CPI came in hot. On Saturday JD Vance went on TV and basically said Iran is walking away from the deal. Then Sunday night, Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. So the question I keep getting asked is...
14 days ago • 13 min read
Hello Reader, Happy Easter! I'm keeping this one short. This week's data confirmed what I've been saying for months: the economy was already cracking before this energy shock. Now it's accelerating. Trump has shifted his Iran strike deadline for the fourth time - Tuesday at 8:00 PM Eastern, "Power Plant and Bridge Day." Both downed F-15E pilots have been rescued from behind enemy lines. Let's get into it. Macro The Numbers Don't Lie ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7, third straight month...
21 days ago • 8 min read
Hello Reader, The Pentagon is now drawing up plans for ground operations on Iranian soil. Let that sink in. Every "pause" and "talks" headline this week got faded within hours. Oil crashed 11% on Monday when the White House claimed "productive conversations" with Tehran. Iran immediately denied any talks were happening and called it psychological warfare. Oil ripped right back. That pattern repeated all week. Headlines drop, futures spike or dump, then reality sets in and we're right back...
28 days ago • 13 min read
Hello Reader, As I'm writing this, futures are set to open in a few hours - but the charts and key levels below will be updated after the open so you have the freshest picture heading into Monday. Last week I told you the question wasn't whether oil spikes. It was what comes after. The war deepened, oil kept ripping, and the data confirmed what I've been saying for months: the economy was already cracking before this energy shock. Now it's accelerating. Hormuz is the only variable that...
about 1 month ago • 11 min read
Hi Reader, Quick note before we dive in. I've decided to move to one newsletter per week going forward (on Sundays). Each one takes about 4-5 hours to research and write, and since I also run my own business, I can't keep sacrificing that kind of time on what's still a hobby for me. I love doing this and I want to keep teaching and sharing what I see, but I need to be realistic about the time commitment. That said, I will be posting on Twitter in real time whenever I open or close any trade I...
about 2 months ago • 12 min read
Hello Reader, We woke up to a war with Iran this weekend. Before I get into the markets, I want to say this first. I know a lot of you are traveling abroad right now, and many of you are from the region. If that is you, please stay safe. Take every precaution you can. Look out for each other. Now let me break down what happened, what it means for markets, and how I am positioning. Macro What Happened in Iran On Friday, markets gapped down and closed red. Traders headed into the weekend on...
about 2 months ago • 15 min read
Hello Reader, Markets are up today because Jane Street got sued. Let that sink in. A lot happened in the last 48 hours. Trump's State of the Union put big insurance companies on notice. A lawsuit against one of the most powerful trading firms on the planet sent Bitcoin higher and got crypto Twitter spinning conspiracy theories. And in the middle of the trading day, CME shut down metals and natural gas futures. No warning. One of those weeks. Let's get into it. Macro 1) Trump's State of the...
2 months ago • 13 min read
